www.ferroalloynet.com: As the steel market is at a low level and the real estate market is in a downward trend, it is difficult for crude steel output to reach a new high. On the other hand, the pressure is transmitted to the upstream manganese alloy, the raw materials are weak, the demand is weak, the supply and inventory are high, and the silicomanganese and ferromanganese alloys have been in a state of continuous slight negative decline since the beginning of the year. The manganese industry can be described as dark clouds and difficulties.
Mr. Hu Shengkun from Asset Management Association of China brought us "Analysis and Prospect of the Development Situation of the Manganese Industry Chain", and analyzed the development trend of the manganese industry chain in detail from the industrial structure, supply and demand pattern, summary and outlook.
From the perspective of the manganese industry structure, Mr. Hu Shengkun pointed out that manganese has a wide range of uses. When we look at the entire manganese industry chain from a global perspective, in terms of single manganese prices, among the main manganese products, the price of manganese is the lowest, and it often has comparative advantage in market competition. And because silicomanganese and high manganese are based on similar production processes, the mutual production switching increases the change of supply, and the similar application fields increase the change of demand, so that the entire supply and demand are in a unified environment that affects each other. In the cost structure of manganese-based intermediate products, manganese ore, electricity, and coke are the main costs, and their proportions vary.
Then Mr. Hu made a detailed analysis on the supply and demand pattern of manganese ore and silicomanganese alloy.
An overview of manganese ore analysis points is as follows:
The status quo of manganese ore supply and demand;
The production capacity development situation of major manganese mines in the world;
The production capacity development situation of major manganese mines in the world.
The summary of silicomanganese essence is as follows:
The supply and demand status of silicomanganese (cost profit and raw material situation of silicomanganese, domestic demand and external demand of silicomanganese, etc.)
The development trend of silicomanganese production capacity;
Why the price of silicomanganese is not affordable this year To VS steel profit.
Finally, Mr. Hu pointed out that the release of production capacity in the north has peaked, and most of the social inventory of silicomanganese is locked in the futures market. As long as the futures do not fall sharply, there will still be very little liquid silicomanganese spot in September; the cost will not drop significantly in the short term. Silicon manganese spot prices will still be relatively strong in September; after entering October, the decline in steel plant purchases will have a significant negative impact on the market. Looking forward to the market outlook, at the end of the year or in the first half of next year, the effects of national policies will gradually appear and improve fundamentals.