FerroAlloyNet 18th International Manganese Industry Forum -An analysis of the current international situation and China's development trend

2020/9/11 10:58:00

Ye Zirong, professor of Graduate School of Southwest Jiaotong University and Counsellor of Sichuan Provincial People's Government, comprehensively and deeply analyzed the global economic development trend and forecast under the epidemic situation:
 
Due to the impact of the epidemic, the global economic situation was in a state of suspension. However, China's GDP in the first quarter decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, and the economic growth of the upper half was -1.6%. IMF predicted that China would achieve a positive growth of 1% this year and would be the only major economy in the world to achieve growth in 2020. Ye calculated the loss based on the development trend in 2019.
 
As for the trade relationship between the United States and China, which attracts the most attention in the international situation, Ye always analyzes the four aspects, including the manufacturing industry of the United States, the complete national system foundation of China's economy, and the intellectual property rights and political ideology of the United States. He also makes a basic judgment on the trend of China-Us relations, indicating that the wisdom and rationality of the two leaders and the choice of handling methods are particularly crucial.
 
The world and US economies recovered fully after 2016. 2019 is the year of global economic downturn and the US economic downturn. China's economy has entered a "new normal" since 2015, and the COVID-19 has sharply reduced the growth rate.
 
In recent years, the United States has withdrawn from more than a dozen international organizations and agreements. This has, for various reasons, affected the development process of global integration, leading to international turbulence, and bringing about a very serious impact on the Chinese economy.
 
Ye made a prediction on the prospect and trend of international economic cooperation:
 
1. China's trade surplus with the United States will continue (up to $400 billion). China's trade surplus with the United States has narrowed since the China-US trade negotiations, but there is no substantial change.
 
2. Digital economy and network economy will show strong growth trend.
 
3. The development of new technology, new energy and new materials will usher in new economic forms.
 
4. Due to the rise of the word currency, the dollar's international settlement position will be hit hard. He also expressed full confidence in China's institutional advantages and its ability to allocate resources.
 
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