www.ferroalloynet.com: Ms. Yao Lingling of CHINATSI analyzed the black products respectively:
Steel prices: After the Spring Festival, due to the impact of the "epidemic", steel prices plunged, and the market appeared a bottom. Followed by the outbreak of foreign epidemic, steel prices appeared a second bottom. Thanks to the strong control measures taken by the Chinese government, the epidemic has been effectively brought under control. In April, demand and prices rose sharply.
Screw thread steel:Screw thread steel inventory in East China is higher than the same period in previous years, especially in Hangzhou, where the inventory has been maintained at more than 1 million tons for more than a few weeks. The pressure of Hotrolled inventory is not big, at present which keeps the normal level.
Iron ore and coke: The price of iron ore has soared since then, smashing a previous year's high and hitting a six-year high, with the Platts 62 index peaking at 128.8 USD/DMTU. In addition, port inventory was maintained in destocking state before June, reaching the low level of inventory in nearly three years, and the mainstream varieties of port are still in shortage. Coke market in the first half of the year showed "two down two up" market.
Steel scrap: At present, the daily scrap consumption of long-process steel enterprises is significantly higher than that of the same period last year, and the demand of long-process steel enterprises is expected to remain high. But the short process still maintains the high level when operation. It is needed to raise the cost of short - process steel enterprises
Supply: In the context of continuously rising prices, steel enterprises make reasonable profits and have a small probability of reducing production. The daily output of crude steel in September is expected to reach 3-3.1 million tons. It is expected to enter the heating season in late November and the daily output of crude steel will return to about 2.9 million tons. Crude steel output is expected to be 1.055 billion tons in 2020, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%.
Import: In July, China imported 2.605 million tons of finished steel products, a year-on-year increase of 209.5 percent, 38.7 percent month-on-month increase, breaking the record in June. The epidemic continues overseas, and global steel overcapacity remains serious. China's downstream steel demand continues to recover, and steel imports are expected to remain high for some time to come.
Economy: Economy picks up, anddemand recovers
Real GDP growth should rebound by more than 6 percent year-on-year in the second half of the year. Relaxation of credit policy and easy money are with strong stimulus, but the margin tends to tighten. Real estate continues to rise month on month, it is with continuous improvement year on year, and building materials demand is guaranteed. The year-on-year growth of automobile and household appliances is obvious; The stimulus policies for infrastructure construction were gradually implemented, and the support for infrastructure was gradually increased.
At last, Yao made the forecast from the aspects of macroscopical, supply, inventory and price trend, and put forward the following points of concern and risk: the steel inventory reduction rate and consumption changes, the development of epidemic situation at home and abroad, economic stimulus policies, changes and implementation of environmental protection production suspension and restriction policies, sharp fluctuations of raw material prices, and the Sino-US relations, etc.
