www.ferroalloynet.com: Keynote Speech of FerroAlloyNet 22nd International Chrome & Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Forumat officially kicked off on August 19 in Chengdu, Sichuan.
Special thanks to the following units for their support
Guiding unit: Shanghai Futures Exchange
Sponsors: Hunan Wantai Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., C&D (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Foreign Economic and Trade Co., Ltd., Sichuan Yinhe Chemical Co., Ltd., Sichuan Minghong Hengjin Technology Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Ruixing Mineral Resources Co., Ltd., Beijing Yuanruida Trading Co., Ltd., Guangdong Century Tsingshan Nickel Co., Ltd., Henan Bangze Industrial Co., Ltd., Shanghai Yikun Industrial Co., Ltd., Sichuan Yuneng International Trade Co., Ltd., Guangzhou Shenfa Electromechanical Industrial Development Co., Ltd., Guangdong Shenfa Industrial Development Co., Ltd. Faxin Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Shanghai Wanhui Mineral Products Co., Ltd., Hanzhong Xinbo Charge Co., Ltd., Sichuan Nuochen Trading Co., Ltd., Zhanjiang Yueshi Trading Co., Ltd., Anhui Shunda Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd., Anhui Tianshun Environmental Protection Equipment Co., Ltd. limited company
Looking at the world, overseas macro pressures continue to appear. Due to the situation in Russia and Ukraine, overseas economic stimulus policies, lower-than-expected new energy demand, changes in stainless steel production capacity utilization and many other factors, the trend of nickel prices has been dominated, and the expected increase in stainless steel demand has not been confirmed. Interest rate hikes are implemented, domestic epidemics are repeated, and demand concerns continue; Ms. Ren Tingzhen of Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. made a brilliant analysis on "strong supply and weak demand, increasing downward pressure on nickel prices" from four aspects: price review, macro Analysis, supply and demand analysis, cost analysis.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange is a futures exchange under the centralized and unified supervision of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. It organizes futures transactions approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission in accordance with the principles of openness, fairness, impartiality and good faith. China's crude stainless steel production accounts for more than 50% of the world's total output, and it is also the largest consumer of ferrochrome . In the past two years, the preparations for the listing of high-carbon ferrochromium futures have been actively advancing, and we look forward to the official listing and trading at an early date to realize cross-variety hedging and arbitrage among the three varieties of the stainless steel industry chain. Mr. Wang Yuyin of Shanghai Futures Exchange gave a wonderful speech on "Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Operation and Development of Ferrochrome Futures", and analyzed three aspects: the operation of nickel futures, the operation of stainless steel futures, and the development of ferrochrome futures.
Looking back at 2021, China's apparent consumption of stainless steel will reach 26.101 million tons, an increase of 493,000 tons compared with last year, a year-on-year increase of 1.92%. The overall scale of apparent stainless steel consumption in my country is huge, but there is still a certain gap between per capita stainless steel consumption and Japan, Germany, and South Korea, which have higher per capita GDP and more developed high-end manufacturing industries. From the perspective of stainless steel demand in countries along the "Belt and Road" in my country, the consumption level of stainless steel in developing economies such as Asia-Pacific, Africa, and Latin America is also low. Ms. Zhang Jiahui of Jinan Sales Department of Zhongtai Futures Co., Ltd. brought a report on "Financial Derivatives Tools Empower Stainless Steel Enterprises", in which the profit analysis of each link of the entire stainless steel industry chain; how enterprises can use financial derivatives tools to empower; stainless steel The case of enterprises using financial derivatives instruments is elaborated in detail.
Nickel is the raw material of stainless steel, and 304 stainless steel accounts for 8%. At present, stainless steel is produced because stainless steel contains nickel and iron. In the short-term trend, stainless steel will often break out of the market, because the volatility of nickel is relatively large, and the volatility of stainless steel is also slightly larger. When operating these two varieties, pay attention to whether it is consistent with the direction of the general trend, and if they are consistent, enter the market as soon as possible. And if it is in the opposite direction to the general trend, you need to see how strong the breakthrough is. Mr. Gao Chuan of Zheshang Zhongtuo Group Co., Ltd. brought a report on "Discussion on Nickel Stainless Steel Trading Methods and Strategies", respectively from nickel analysis methods; primary nickel product structure evolution; nickel price and inventory; domestic pure nickel supply and demand balance sheet; nickel stainless steel A comprehensive explanation of price comparisons, etc.
In 2022, the price trend of ferrochromium will be significantly weakened by the policy guidance, and the driving force of cost and demand will be strengthened. First, the cost rises all the way to "escort" the iron price, and then the epidemic situation and the changing international situation have a negative impact on the terminal consumption, and the iron price runs from strong to weak. Since July, steel mills have frequently cut production, and raw material consumption is facing a great test. Mr. Xia Yufei of the company analyzed "Domestic Chromium Commodity Supply and Demand Analysis and Market Outlook". It mainly focuses on the introduction of China's mineral chromium series business, the review of domestic chromium series market in 2021-2022, and the future market outlook of chromium series.
In 2022, China's stainless steel production will show a year-on-year decline. After the price of stainless steel experienced a sharp rise in early March, the focus of spot stainless steel prices began to gradually move downward at the end of March, from a price of around 23,000 yuan to around 20,000 CNY/Ton at the end of May. After entering June, the price of stainless steel fell at a speed. It has risen significantly, breaking through 20,000 yuan in just a few days, below 19,000 yuan, and once below 18,000 yuan; in the fourth quarter of the traditional low season of domestic terminal consumption, the overall consumption has recovered in the third quarter and is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter. Ms. Xie Ling from the Research Institute of International Trade Futures Co., Ltd. conducted a comprehensive interpretation of the "Stainless Steel Market Outlook and Hedging Application Introduction". She said that the macro side: the liquidity tightening in Europe and the United States is disturbed, and the risk of overseas economic recession is increasing; raw material side: supply trends Due to easing, the cost of stainless steel is expected to gradually decrease; supply and demand side: production maintains growth, and demand is weak; and a detailed analysis of the introduction of stainless steel hedging applications is made.
In 2022, under the support of downstream alloy factories, the price of chrome ore will start a round of price increase mode. The mismatch between supply and demand of chrome ore futures is difficult to improve. At the same time as demand increases, the inventory of chrome ore in ports continues to decline, and chrome ore rises. The price trend continued. However, in May, with the weak and stable operation of the terminal stainless steel market, the retail price of ferrochromium has been lowered frequently, and factories are not confident in the market outlook. The chrome ore market was struggling in the third quarter, and the situation in the fourth quarter is unclear, how the chrome ore market will develop. Ms. Ge Jie, an analyst of FerroAlloyNet chromium series products, brought a keynote speech report on "New Situation of Chrome Ore Market in 2022". The report includes changes in chrome ore prices caused by demand; new ferrochrome production capacity across the country; increased chrome ore consumption; port destocking mode; port chrome ore inventory changes; South African chrome ore export changes; Turkey chrome ore export changes; Tibet chrome ore changes The "return" of the mine; the "introduction" of the chrome ore traders; the main factors affecting the trend of the chrome ore in the second half of the year were elaborated.
Closed meeting——Sichuan Ferrochrome Factory Meeting
Ms. Luo Wen, an analyst of ferro-chrome products, made a wonderful review of the ferrochromium market. She mentioned that, stimulated by the "market dividend", the production capacity of ferrochromium was eliminated and added; After the decline, the supply of ferrochrome is excessive; the new production capacity is implemented, and the competition is more intense; the domestic stainless steel consumption is still expected to be weak.
Mainly discuss the following topics:
Does Sichuan still have advantages during the wet season? How to make better use of this advantage?
When will the production capacity elimination policy be implemented in Sichuan, and are equipment upgrades and process adjustments feasible?
The amount of ore traded in Chongqing Port is small and the price is high. How should factories deal with the risks caused by the sharp rise and fall of chrome ore?
The sales radius is highly limited. What methods can be used to make up for the high logistics cost?
Will the market share of ferrochrome in Sichuan continue to be squeezed?
At this point, all the speeches of the 22nd Chromium-Nickel Stainless Steel Summit Forum of FerroAlloyNet have come to an end. I would like to thank all the participants for their strong support for this meeting and their trust in FerroAlloyNet. Looking forward to the 23rd Chromium-Nickel in November The annual meeting of stainless steel new energy will meet again!