www.ferroalloynet.com: Mr. Zhang Jianliang from Beijing Wuyuan Industrial Co., Ltd. brought a wonderful sharing of China’s Iron and Steel Industry Situation in 2024 to this meeting. According to a World Bank research report, if "carbon tariffs" are fully implemented, Chinese manufacturing may face an average tariff of 26% in the international market, and exports may fall by 21% as a result.
He pointed out that the pace of resumption of work was slower than that of the same period last year: the resumption rate of construction sites was 62.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%. The main reason is that the funding rate is low, currently 44.7%, and generally around 60% of the projects are normally started, which is also affected by weather and safety inspection factors.
In terms of regions, East China and South China fare better. Central China was delayed for a week due to weather and safety training, and North China was briefly suspended due to meetings. The two regions have greater room for subsequent recovery. Funds are relatively tight in the Southwest, Northwest, and Northeast, and the resumption of work is slow.
Broken down by project type, the real estate funding rate was 36.48%, and the non-real estate funding rate was 47.54%. The proportion of real estate has shrunk, and there are fewer new construction projects, most of which are guaranteed-delivery buildings.
Expectations for the fourth week after the holiday: Centenary Construction Network predicts 82-85%, which is slightly lower than last year, but it also exceeds expectations. The prices of building materials have shown signs of recovery recently, and funds for infrastructure projects are relatively more secure. Special funds can be used exclusively, and the quality will be better to support the development of infrastructure.
Survey on Twelve Hua Debt Provinces: The performance of some provinces exceeded expectations, such as Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Chongqing, and Liaoning, where the funds received were close to the average of 40%-44%. Some provinces in the southwest and north have reported that projects with less than 50% progress have been suspended.
Three major projects: Government investment or construction parties bring funds to enter the market, and the funds are definitely guaranteed. The main increase is the transformation of urban villages. Last year, some projects in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen were already under construction in Guiyang, Chongqing, Chengdu, Hefei, Nanjing, etc. Planning or land preparation is already underway, and more construction is expected to start in May and June this year.
Projects with good funding this year: major projects such as high-speed rail, highways, and water conservancy, as well as livelihood and municipal projects such as schools, hospitals, and electrical appliances.